CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-06-20T17:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-06-20T17:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25642/-1
CME Note: Large CME visible to the East in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is the X1.1 class flare from AR13341 peaking at 2023-06-20T17:09Z associated with a widespread EUV wave from the Eastern side of the disk towards the central meridian of the Earth-facing disk (best seen in SDO/AIA 211 and 193), as well as dimming (visible in SDO/AIA 193) directed towards the NW of the source location. A post-eruptive arcade follows the eruption which is best seen in SDO/AIA 171 starting around 2023-06-20T17:45Z. From Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS: There is an arrival of HSS on June 23. I doubt that we see a CME arrival in late June 24. The field components look similar (especially B_y) before and after the approximated arrival. The higher magnetic field strength can occur due to some form of compression (seems like the average speed in this interval is higher than the previous).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-23T05:01Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1276.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 738.468 Acceleration: -0.348099 Duration in seconds: 214633.91 Duration in days: 2.4841887 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.35 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 663.8 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/06/2023 Time: 05:01 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 43.30 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-06-21T09:43Z
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